Brian Buckeyes Stats
Writer
This is the week Buckeye Nation has dreaded for 2,191 days. Five years without a win against Michigan (COVID cancellation in 2020). Four straight losses to That Team Up North. Four straight years of watching an offense that eviscerates everyone else suddenly forget how to play modern football the moment maize and blue take the field.
We’ve spent years dissecting every Ohio State offensive snap since 2021 – more than 1,800 qualified drives (excluding kneel-downs, garbage time, end-of-half clock kills, and short fields starting inside the opponent’s 25). We’ve charted play type, down-and-distance, air yards on every pass, drive outcome, and exact sequence. The conclusions are not opinions. They are math.
And the math is screaming one thing: throw the damn ball deep on the first or second play of the drive – like you do against literally everyone else.
When an Ohio State drive lasts at least three plays, here’s how often it begins with the exact sequence: run on first down, run on second down, pass on third (or later):
*Predictability Gap = how much more often non-scoring drives fall into run-run-pass than scoring drives. Positive gap = the sequence correlates with failure.
Against Michigan, Ohio State doesn’t just lean on run-run-pass – they overdose on it. Sixty percent of their touchdown drives (the few they managed) began that way. Two-thirds of the drives that died did the same. Michigan loads the box, stuffs two runs for a combined three yards, and watches Ohio State trot off the field or kick a field goal.
But the real damage shows when we zoom out to the full sample of qualified drives: run-run-pass isn’t just predictable – it’s a proven efficiency killer, turning potential scoring opportunities into punts or field goals at a far lower rate than any other opening sequence. Here’s the impact across all drives in each grouping (% of total drives ending in TD when starting run-run-pass vs. non-run-run-pass starters):
This “Success Gap” quantifies the opportunity cost: across 85% of the sample, run-run-pass starters score touchdowns 16–18% less often than alternatives like early passes. Against Michigan, it’s a bloodbath – only 20.0% of run-run-pass drives end in seven (vs. 25.0% for everything else), meaning approximately three “wasted” possessions over four games that could have been TDs with a different script. The playoff anomaly? Run-run-pass “works” more because it’s used so rarely (20%), forcing aggression that loosens the box and creates mismatches.
This isn’t a coincidence. It’s self-sabotage – and it all stems from the one glaring omission: Ohio State barely attempts deep throws early against Michigan, feeding the run-run-pass loop and handing control to the defense.
The Early Deep Bomb: The Nuclear Option Ohio State Refuses to Use Against Michigan – And the Data Proves Fans Right
Fans have been screaming it for years: “Throw the ball down the field early!” The data confirms it – Ohio State’s usage of 15+ air-yard attempts on play 1 or 2 of drives against Michigan is dramatically lower than against any other opponent, turning potential scoring drives into predictable slogs. It’s not just that they don’t complete deep balls early; they barely even attempt them (any outcome: complete, incomplete, INT, sack – doesn’t matter), allowing Michigan to stack the box and force the run-run-pass curse.
From our analysis (ESPN/CFBD with PFF air yards for 2021–2024 Michigan games, 25 qualified drives total):
Year-by-Year Breakdown (Attempts on Play 1 or 2, % Usage):
The usage hovers at ~1 in 4 drives – half the rate against everyone else. And the impact? Of the 19 drives without an early deep attempt vs. Michigan, only 5 ended in TD (26.3%). With the attempt? 4 TDs out of 6 (66.7%). That’s a 40.4 percentage point swing – the threat alone wins drives, loosening coverage and boosting run success later. Without it, Michigan stacks 8-9 in the box (68% of 1st downs vs. OSU 2021–2024), stuffing runs and forcing third-and-long.
Fans nail it: Day’s staff treat Michigan like a 1990s run-stuffer, not a mid-pack secondary (67th in 20+ allowed). Only 17% of OSU’s passes vs. Michigan are early deep (vs. 31% elsewhere) – that’s the root of the run-run-pass addiction and the 20.0% TD rate on those starters. Script 40%+ early deep like the playoff anomaly, and the gap closes overnight.
Since 2021, every time Ohio State attempts a pass of 15+ air yards on the first or second play of a drive (normal field position, any outcome – complete, incomplete, INT, sack – doesn’t matter):
Read that bottom row again. Even when Ohio State finally takes the shot against Michigan, it still works at an elite rate – far better than the national average drive-to-TD rate of 38%. The problem isn’t execution. It’s cowardice. They call it on roughly half their drives against everyone else. Against Michigan? Less than 25%.
They shelve the one concept that scores touchdowns nine times out of ten.
Michigan’s 2025 Defense: Good, But Not “Scary Good” – And Already Exposed
The narrative is that Michigan’s defense is still some unstoppable force. Let’s dismantle that with 2025 facts.
Opponent Long Passing Plays Allowed (11 games through 11/22/2025)
Their one true test against a top-20 passing attack? USC (#8 nationally). Jayden Maiava: 25/32, 265 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT → 8.3 YPA, 184.21 rating. USC scored on three of four touchdown drives using early deep shots (15+ air yards on play 1 or 2 – or damn close on the fourth). Even the “misses” set up scores. Michigan lost 31-13.
Oklahoma did the exact same thing in their win – every scoring drive featured a big early throw. Maryland, ranked #61 in passing offense and #103 in total offense, used the same vertical attack to hang 20 points and nearly 300 passing yards on the Wolverines, proving even mid-tier air games can exploit the secondary when teams commit early.
When teams actually attack vertically from the jump, Michigan folds.
Every other opponent? Run-heavy nightmares: Wisconsin (#131 passing), Northwestern (#118), Purdue, Michigan State, Nebraska, Oklahoma (struggling), plus two G5 teams. Eight of ten rank outside the top 50 in passing offense.
Their “elite” rankings? Pure schedule padding.
The legendary front seven? Tied for 26th in sacks – identical to Ohio State’s own rate. Most came against atrocious protection (Michigan State 129th in sacks allowed). Against good lines (USC, Northwestern)? Silence.
This is not 2021–2023 Michigan. This is a solid, experienced unit living on reputation – and already beaten two times this year by the exact blueprint Ohio State refuses to use.
Ohio State 2025: The #1 Efficiency Offense in America, Built for Vertical Warfare
The Buckeyes sit 28th in raw passing yards per game – because they don’t rely on volume to score. They rank #2 nationally in passer rating (184.21) and #5 in yards per attempt (9.42). They take what defenses give underneath when needed, then detonate vertically when the matchup screams for it – ranking 9th in 40+ yard completions. Additionally, Julian Sayin is ranked #1 in deep ball accuracy per PFF.
The result? 87.3% TD rate on early 15+ air-yard bombs this season and last – the highest sustained mark since the 2024 playoff run where they demolished Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas with the same aggression.
The November 29 Game Plan – It’s Already Written
Script the first 15 plays exactly like:
Multiple first-down bombs. 15–25 air yards on play 1 or 2 of every series. Force Michigan’s 67th-ranked explosive-play defense and average pass rush to prove they can stop what the entire country already knows works.
They give up a 20+ yard completion once every 11–12 defensive plays. They rank 67th doing it. They’ve been boat-raced two times this season by teams that followed the blueprint.
There is zero data-driven reason to crawl back into run-run-pass hibernation for a fifth straight year.
Ryan Day has the national-title-winning cheat code. He’s shown flashes in 2025. USC, Oklahoma, and even Nebraska, Maryland just proved it works against this exact Michigan defense.
All that’s left is courage.
November 29th isn’t complicated.
Throw it deep early. End the streak. Reclaim The Game.
It’s time Ryan Day stops over-respecting Michigan. Honor the sanctity of The Game by utterly disrespecting this team on the field – stop playing into their hands every single year. The numbers demand it. The fans demand it. The “Gold Pants” demand it.
O-H… throw it deep.
Bryson Blue
Writer
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Writer
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